Welcome to the 2026 Trade Deadline Roundup. All trades will be added to this article as they are reported.

 

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August 3

San Diego Padres acquire RHP Hunter Stratton ($0.0M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Andrew Moore ($0.1M)

Accepted by the model.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire C Hunter Feduccia ($2.2M) and RHP Jacob Kmatz ($1.6M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for OF Jack Suwinski (-$0.3M) and international bonus pool space (unknown)

Feduccia makes for a second backup catcher reunion for the Dodgers, who had to place Dalton Rushing on the IL. No matter; the Rays needed to open a roster spot for Liam Hicks anyway. Kmatz looks like an interesting relief prospect, though it should always give one pause when the Rays trade an arm away. Suwinski is crushing the ball in Triple-A, but clearly not enough for the Dodgers to give him a chance. Maybe the Rays will do so - they could use some left-handed thump - but likely the roster spot and the international pool space were the drivers of this deal for them.

Accepted by the model as a moderate underpay by Los Angeles, pending the international bonus space amount.

Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Jeff Hoffman (-$6.1M) and cash ($3.75M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for LHP Dasan Hill ($8.3M), SS Dameury Pena ($0.5M) and RHP John Klein ($0.2M)

The gap on this one likely isn't as large as it looks - but it'll depend on who you ask. Hoffman has been fantastic since losing the closer's role early this season, his 2025 home run problems seemingly behind him. His BABIP is sky-high, explaining why his peripherals favor him more than his 3.94 ERA. But by all indications, he's a solid late-inning arm under team control for $11 million in 2027; maybe slightly overpaid, but nowhere near as bad as things looked early this year.

Whether or not this is an overpay hinges on your opinion of Hill. The 20-year-old lefty has all the stuff and projectability in the world. But he's also walking 17.2% of the batters he faces in High-A. He could be a player development challenge that nets the Blue Jays a mid-rotation starter in three or four years; he could be a lot of work just for a lefty reliever with command issues. Your opinion on this deal will hinge on how likely you think either of those two outcomes are for Hill.

Pena doesn't strike out, but with no power and no defensive home, he's a future utility player at best. Klein looks like your garden variety depth reliever; if it clicks, he can cover the middle innings.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Minnesota.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Clay Holmes ($2.3M) and OF Tyrone Taylor ($0.4M) from the New York Mets in exchange for IF Jefferson Rojas ($18.2M)

Red Sox nonsense aside, this might be the weirdest trade of the deadline. The fit for both Holmes and Taylor on the Cubs is clear - that's not the issue. It's the price Chicago paid, one that reeks of desperation at a time when such a thing wasn't necessarily warranted. The Cubs didn't strike out on every other pitching target, then push all their chips in for Holmes. They already added Kevin Gausman and Ryan Zeferjahn at this point. With Edward Cabrera set to return from injury in the next few weeks, Justin Steele potentially a few weeks behind him and Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga both pitching well, Chicago's rotation was already on track to be fine come October.

Don't get me wrong - Holmes is certainly a welcome addition. He provides stability to a rotation that has sorely lacked it all season long. There's no telling what Steele or Cabrera will look like when they return, and no guaranteeing that any other arms remain healthy down the stretch. But by that logic, Holmes is no guarantee either - he was pitching way above his peripherals before a significant leg injury.

With all of that in mind, the cost is the issue. Rojas is a consensus top 100 prospect (and by some sources, top 50). He's a fine shortstop defender who does a little bit of everything offensively, including plus plate discipline and room for power growth. He's playing well in Double-A as a 21-year-old and could be a big leaguer by next season. Maybe he doesn't have the standout tools to become a star, but he looks like an average offensive and defensive shortstop, and that has a ton of value - certainly more than a pair of rentals.

By definition, any of these deals could backfire. The reason low-value prospects are often called lottery tickets is because, every so often, they hit, and suddenly you've traded away Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields. But this is a lot more than that, and in this writer's eyes, has a very good chance of being a deal the Cubs regret in a couple years.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Chicago.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquire OF Lars Nootbaar ($2.1M) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for RHP Daniel Eagen ($3.3M), LHP Sandro Santana ($0.7M) and a PTBNL

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Nootbaar was considered virtually untouchable, a part of the next great Cardinals team. But multiple years of injuries and underperformance later, he's unceremoniously traded at the deadline for an unexciting return. Right now, he looks like an average-ish bat with an average-ish outfield glove. But in his small sample this year, he has some red on his Savant page for the Diamondbacks to dream on. He has one more year of arbitration remaining.

At this time last year, Eagen looked like a breakout prospect in the making. But the 23-year-old has struggled with command and the long ball, and as a result, stalled a bit in Double-A. He still has time to figure it out, but if this continues, he's a reliever. Santana is a funky lefty relievers with great numbers through the minors. This isn't the return Cardinals fans would have expected for Nootbaar a few years ago, but given how his career has played out, it's not a bad one at all.

Accepted by the model.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire OF Colby Thomas ($5.1M) from the Athletics in exchange for RHP Seth Johnson ($0.1M)

Thomas hasn't made enough contact to stick at the big league level; he's trending down and the A's have a deep outfield depth chart. He'll be optionable right-handed hitting depth for Philadelphia. The A's need any upside they can get in the bullpen, and Johnson was once a decent prospect and looked good in Triple-A this year.

Accepted by the model as a moderate underpay by Philadelphia.

St. Louis Cardinals acquire LHP Caleb Ferguson (-$0.3M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for international bonus pool space ($0.25M)

Accepted by the model.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire RHP Kirby Yates (-$0.8M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for RHP Kyle Robinson ($0.2M)

Yates is old, but fine; he still misses bats with his splitter. Robinson was originally acquired from the Athletics earlier this year in the Alika Williams trade.

Accepted by the model.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire RHP Luke Bachar ($0.0M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for IF Hyun Seung Lee ($2.3M), RHP Brandan Bidois ($1.4M) and OF Brian Sanchez ($0.2M)

This is one of those "yeah, sure" types of trades. Bachar is fine. He has average fastball velo, strikes out more than a batter per inning and has posted an ERA below four in each of his first three seasons. He has two options remaining and four more years of team control. But that's about it; otherwise he just looks like a guy.

Lee is an 18-year-old Korean prospect who doesn't have a whole lot to look at in terms of minor league production. If you like him, you're dreaming on raw power and speed and hoping he finds a position some day. Bidois throws hard and doesn't know where it's going; he made his big league debut this year, but it didn't go all that well. Sanchez, originally acquired in last deadline's David Bednar deal, is a power-hitting outfielder with a concerning hit tool.

If you're trying to contend, you'd rather have a consistently fine arm like Bachar than a work in progress like Bidois. Maybe adding Lee and Sanchez is just the cost of doing business, and maybe the Pirates see room for Bachar to take another step forward.

Accepted by the model as a minor overpay by Pittsburgh.

Cleveland Guardians acquire 1B Nathaniel Lowe ($0.4M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Alejandro Rivera ($3.2M)

Lowe is fine, a platoon first baseman with a 120 wRC+. Unfortunately he gives some of that value back defensively, and much of his production came in a red-hot April. Still, he's a definite upgrade for Cleveland - Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Manzardo just weren't getting it done.

They paid a bit more for the rental than we would have expected. Rivera is young and raw, but the 19-year-old has a bit more prospect hype than your average lottery ticket. He'll be a project, but don't be surprised if you start to hear his name in a couple years.

Accepted by the model as a minor overpay by Cleveland.

San Diego Padres acquire RHP Casey Mize ($9.4M) and 3B Gage Workman ($0.4M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for LHPs Kash Mayfield ($10.8M) and Jackson Wolf ($0.0M)

This looks like a perfectly fair rental deal, with a couple other pieces thrown in. Mize, once the first overall pick and top pitching prospect in baseball, hasn't quite lived up to that billing. But he's rebounded nicely from a rocky start to his career, and since the start of 2025 he's been a solid mid-rotation arm. By fWAR, 2026 has already been a career year, and he'll look to finish it strong as he heads into free agency.

Mayfield was San Diego's first-round pick in 2024, and easily its best pitching prospect. But that says more about the Padres' weak system than it does about Mayfield's prospect standing. He's a fine lefty pitching well enough in High-A, but certainly has more development ahead of him, particularly in terms of secondary offerings and possible room for velo growth. He'll be a bit of a project.

As for the secondary pieces, Workman is a quality infield defender with pop, but hasn't made enough contact to seize even a part-time role. He'll help provide depth for an aging Padres infield. Wolf made a start for San Diego in 2023 but has cooked in the upper minors since. He's just depth.

Publicly, the Tigers said they wanted to thread the needle and remain contenders after trading Tarik Skubal. But with this deal, that gets a lot harder to see. One could squint and see Mize starting Game 1 of a successful Tigers playoff run. But now, there are just too many question marks, especially with no other additions to the MLB squad.

Accepted by the model.

New York Yankees acquire OF Heliot Ramos ($9.6M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for LHP Henry Lalane ($13.5M) and IF Kaeden Kent ($2.6M)

On paper, this one is rejected, but it isn't that far off. Ramos crushes lefties without totally embarrassing himself against righties. He also shows flashes of being able to be an impact hitter against both sides, and at 26, maybe that's still in there somewhere. He's a poor corner outfield defender, though, and the DH spot is a bit clogged up in New York. He has three years of arbitration remaining after 2026.

Lalane is a tall lefty whose velo has jumped this year. He's a bit behind schedule, just now reaching High A for the first time at age 22. He's also Rule 5 eligible this offseason, which means his option clock starts ticking next season. Still, he looks like a high probability big leaguer, a middle reliever at worst and a mid-rotation arm at best. He's a nice add for a San Francisco farm that clearly targeted a pitching refresh this deadline. Kent, Jeff's son, looks like a utility type without a standout tool.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by New York.

Miami Marlins acquire RHP Victor Vodnik ($4.2M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for 3B Connor Norby ($2.9M) and RHP Aiden May ($0.2M)

Vodnik's fastball frequently touches triple digits, but it doesn't perform very well. Perhaps all he needs is an escape from Colorado's altitude; perhaps he needs further development. Either way, Miami isn't a bad landing spot, and he has the kind of raw tools to be a monster late-inning reliever if everything goes right. He has three years of team control remaining.

Norby is a bit of a tweener, lacking the power for a corner spot and the defensive chops to play up the middle. Still, he's a guy who has consistently hit well in the upper minors and may have another gear in him offensively. May looks like a possible back-end/swingman type; likely, he's minor league depth.

Accepted by the model.

Boston Red Sox acquire LHP Erik Miller ($4.6M) and OF Carlos Gutierrez ($4.8M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for IF Marcelo Mayer ($27.9M)

This one ruffled some feathers.

Let's start with the obvious. Miller is an solid left-handed reliever with command issues and three more years of team control remaining. He also still has all three options, important for someone with his level of command who may see rough patches here and there. Gutierrez is an interesting lower-minors prospect, one without a ton of hype but interesting tools and stats to support them. Mayer was a near-consensus top 25 prospect in baseball, with some placing him closer to the top 10. He's also been quite underwhelming through his first 364 plate appearances with Boston.

Those are all indisputable. The two clearest points of contention appear to be: how valuable are those extra years of team control for Miller? And how much of a hit should Mayer's value take for the poor start to his big league career?

The first one is easy. Rental relievers are always pretty cheap. An extra year of control can be nice to add and can bump up their value. But beyond that, for non-elite arms, teams just don't pay up. Unless you're a Mason Miller type, relievers are just too volatile to be paying too heavily for produdction multiple years out.

The second question is one we're still trying to answer. It's clear that even the best prospects lose value over time. Franklin Barreto was traded for a rental (Tommy La Stella) in 2020 after three failed stints in the big leagues. Curtis Mead was traded in a similar rental deal for Adrian Houser last deadline after three chances of his own.

But then there's Miguel Vargas, who clearly had value to the White Sox when they targeted him in a three-team deal at the 2024 deadline. He was their primary return for two valuable arms in Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech (and with the benefit of hindsight, that deal really worked out). At the time of the trade, Vargas had tallied 434 plate appearances of below average offense and below replacement level play. Vargas was a worse prospect with worse major league performance under his belt under a longer period of time, and he was seemingly valued higher in that deal than the Red Sox just valued Mayer.

It's an inexact science. It's worth noting that Mayer has been injury prone, and earning that label at just 23 is never a good thing. But on the other hand, he's only 23! With less than 400 career plate appearances under his belt, and all three options remaining, Mayer still has a whole lot of opportunity ahead of him.

Perhaps $27.9M is too steep. But a prospect of this caliber, who hasn't completely gotten the bat knocked out of his hands in the big leagues, and with youth and flexibility still fully on his side, should certainly have more value than the return the Red Sox received here.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Boston.

Cleveland Guardians acquire LHP Foster Griffin ($7.1M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for LHPs Josh Hartle ($2.4M) and Will Dion ($0.5M), OF Nick Mitchell ($0.5M) and RHP Kendeglys Virguez ($0.4M).

The Nationals appeared to be strongly considering an extension for Griffin rather than trading him, as the 31-year-old has been impressive in his first year back from the NPB. Instead, they ship him to Cleveland for a somewhat underwhelming return, albeit one that perfectly fits Washington's plan to stock up on near-MLB pitching.

Hartle, originally acquired from Pittsburgh in the Spencer Horwitz deal, is holding his own at Double-A. He doesn't throw particularly hard and looks like a decent probability fifth starter. Dion immediately enters Washinton's bullpen as a funky lefty. Virguez could join him in a year or two; the 22-year-old just reached Double-A, and throws hard with big stuff, but poor command and a shaky injury history. Mitchell is a likely fourth or fifth outfielder without much pop.

This package doesn't hurt Cleveland much, and doesn't truly move the needle for Washington, but does add further near-MLB depth to a farm system that was severely lacking such options even a couple weeks ago. Griffin isn't as talented as his 3.06 ERA would suggest, but he's a clear upgrade over Slade Cecconi for the contending Guardians.

Accepted by the model as a minor underpay by Cleveland.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire RHP Tyler Wells ($4.6M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHP Michael Forret ($14.0M).

As always, the Rays march to the beat of their own drum. Wells has turned himself into a capable reliever, albeit one whose below average fastball velocity leaves little room for error. He has one more year of arbitration, which shouldn't be too expensive. He's also a former starter, and it's fair to wonder if the Rays could consider converting him back and squeezing more value out of him.

Forret is an odd return for many reasons. He's a top 100 prospect by some sources, a high price to pay for a year and a half of a good-not-great reliever. He also began his career in Baltimore's system before being traded to Tampa Bay in the Shane Baz deal just eight months ago. During that time, his stock certainly hasn't fallen; if anything, after an impressive showing in Double-A earned him a Triple-A promotion at just 22, it's risen. There must be something the Rays see in Forret that they don't like - or, something they see in Wells that they love - to prompt this strange return-to-sender. For whatever it's worth, our model doesn't see it.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Tampa Bay.

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Antonio Senzatela ($0.8M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for LHP Mark Manfredi (not in system) and IF Juan Martinez (not in system)

Senzatela reinvented himself as a relief weapon this season for Colorado, his fastball ticking up into the high 90s. But he's owed about $3.5 million the rest of the way, in the final year of a large extension he signed back in 2022 when he looked like a promising starting pitcher, so his surplus was low enough that the Brewers added him for a pair of non-ranked prospects. Manfredi looks like a fine Triple-A reliever, while Martinez is a contact-over-power switch-hitting infielder who just reached Single-A.

Accepted by the model.

Baltimore Orioles acquire OF Christian Franklin ($0.6M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RHP Joe Glassey (not in system)

After trading Taylor Ward, the Orioles could have given his outfield at-bats to former top prospect Heston Kjerstad, who is currently putting up uninspiring numbers in Triple-A. Instead, they grab Franklin, a 26-year-old whom Washington originally acquired from the Cubs in last deadline's Michael Soroka trade. He looks like a fine short-side platoon option.

Accepted by the model.

Boston Red Sox acquire OF Eli White ($0.8M) from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Tyler Uberstine ($2.0M)

White's plate appearances against left-handed pitching will likely go to newly-acquired Lane Thomas. But he's something of an odd fit in Boston as well, filling a similar role as Jahmai Jones.

Accepted by the model.

Chicago White Sox acquire C Joey Bart ($0.5M) from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Duncan Davitt ($0.6M)

The White Sox needed an upgrade at catcher, and though this isn't as high as they were originally aiming, Bart isn't a bad option. The Braves no longer had room for him with Sean Murphy returning from the IL.

Accepted by the model.

Kansas City Royals acquire RHP Nolan Hoffman ($0.1M) from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Manuel Colon (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

Houston Astros acquire OF Daulton Varsho ($3.1M) and cash (unknown) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Spencer Arrighetti ($4.6M)

Here's another win-win deal that just makes sense. Varsho covers a ton of ground in center field and should help lock down a position that's been inconsistent at best this year for Houston. He's underperforming a bit offensively, but perhaps he can find his swing in hitter-friendly Daiken Park and turn a hot second half into a lucrative free agent deal this winter.

Toronto has dipped heavily into its pitching depth this season, and though Arrighetti is currently on the IL with a foot injury, the 26-year-old should factor into that depth soon enough. He has three options and three more years of service time remaining, and though he hasn't been much more than a fifth starter to this point in career, his minor league performance points to potential for more.

Accepted by the model.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Ryan Zeferjahn ($3.7M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exhange for C/DH Moises Ballasteros ($12.5M) and RHP Mason McGwire ($1.8M)

While similar in magnitude to the Brewers deal below, this overpay is at least easy enough to explain. Zeferjahn is on the upswing; he's always been a reliever with great stuff and no idea where it's going, but this year his command has improved, especially as of late. He has four additional years of team control, but for non-elite relievers, our model doesn't value those years too highly - there's just too much risk, especially for a reliever with this profile. Still, he's an exciting arm, and one that could certainly be a mainstay in Chicago's bullpen.

The main piece heading to Los Angeles is Ballasteros, a "catcher" largely by name. The former top 50 prospect should have more than enough of a bat to put together a big league career, but he hasn't shown it this season, either in Triple-A or the majors. The change of scenery could help, as could a full-time shift to first base or DH, though it remains to be seen whether such a change is on the horizon with the Angels. McGwire, Mark's son, looks like a possible swingman or middle reliever at some point.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Chicago.

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Dustin May ($5.2M) and LHP JoJo Romero ($1.5M) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for OFs Alexander Frias ($23.1M) and Josiah Ragsdale ($4.5M)

It's hard to view this as anything other than a blatant overpay. May and Romero are fine additions for a Milwaukee ballclub that has been among the league's best. They'll help provide stability to a pitching staff that has seen plenty of shuffling this season, especially in the wake of injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester.

But as rentals, their values were limited, and the cost here was extremely high. Frias is the main piece, an 18-year-old outfielder who torched complex ball and is holding his own at Single-A, working his way up top prospect lists by doing so. The Brewers do an excellent job of identifying these pop-up international prospects, but typically they hang onto them; see Jesús Made, Luis Peña and Luis Lara. Will trading Frias burn the Brewers, or are they confident that he doesn't belong in the same conversation as those others?

Ragsdale isn't half bad himself, a power/speed lefty slugger who's crushed High-A and Double-A this season. Much of his future will depend on how much contact he can make, particularly against left-handed pitching. This is the type of player we'd expect to be traded for a pair of non-elite rentals; adding Frias on top just blows this deal out of the water.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Milwaukee.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire RHP Luke Weaver ($2.9M) and cash ($8.0M) from the New York Mets in exchange for IF Sammy Stafura ($5.1M)

The Pirates were long connected to Weaver, and once this deal was fully reported, it was easy to see why. The righty has pitched very well this season and is under control through 2027, and the Pirates were able to get Steve Cohen's Mets to eat half of Weaver's 2027 salary. That's excellent insurance for a Pirates team currently on the periphery, but hoping to take another step forward next year.

Stafura was originally acquired from Cincinnati in last deadline's Ke'Bryan Hayes deal. He was seen as a glove-first infielder, possible utility type, but he's had a massive power breakout in High-A this year. This hasn't influenced public evaluation to this point, but it would be reasonable for the Mets to see more here.

Accepted by the model as a moderate underpay by Pittsburgh.

Chicago Cubs acquire LHP Braxton Garrett ($3.4M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for 1B Jonathon Long ($2.3M) and RHP Jace Beck ($1.0M)

Garrett was an obvious change-of-scenery candidate, and the Cubs have done a better job of pitching development in recent years. As a 1B-only, Long was blocked in Chicago by Michael Busch, but he's a decent power bat who's essentially MLB-ready. Beck is a decent relief prospect who should also debut soon. This looks like an easy win-win deal.

Accepted by the model.

Boston Red Sox acquire Cs Adley Rustchman ($22.1M) and Jake Rogers (-$0.4M) and cash (unknown) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHPs Anthony Eyanson ($31.4M) and Kyson Witherspoon ($11.8M), OF Enddy Azocar ($24.2M), C Carlos Narvaez ($12.4M) and a PTBNL

Wow. This is one of those trades that instantly goes right into the record books, the type that will make or break a GM's career.

Let's start with Rustchman. The former first overall pick was fully looking the part in his first two big league seasons, posting 11.1 fWAR combined. But 2024 was a step back both offensively and defensively, and 2025 saw him fall even further, posting a 91 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR in only 90 games. This season has been a significant step in the right direction, but not quite to those early-career heights, and with injury concerns continuing to mount; he's currently on the IL with wrist inflammation, and also had an ankle issue and a concussion earlier in the season.

He's clearly a quality player. But he might be closer to a 3.5-4.0 fWAR player, as opposed to his 5.5 fWAR peak early in his career. And that's before factoring in his injury concerns, and the risk that it falls apart again and he repeats his 2024-25 struggles. With only one expensive year of arbitration remaining - and that being a season that could be significantly impacted by CBA negotiations, no less - he's a risky addition.

And the cost was considerable for Boston. Eyanson alone would have been steep; the 2025 third-round pick is one of the fastest rising pitching prospects in the game, ranking in the top 40 by most publications. He's dominating Double-A and could make the big leagues as soon as 2027. Witherspoon and Azocar are back-end top 100 types as well. The former, 21, was Boston's first-round pick in 2025, and looks like a high probability starter. The latter, 19, is flashing big power in what has been a breakout year. Both are currently in High-A.

Then there's Narvaez. At this point last year, the backstop looked like Boston's long-term solution at the position. His 2.7 fWAR in 2025 more than doubled Rustchman's production that year. This year, he's been replacement level thanks to a 47 wRC+. His arrow is certainly pointing down, but he looks like a solid buy-low for Baltimore, especially in addition to all the other young talent in this deal.

Craig Breslow is clearly going for it. The Red Sox entered this deadline with one of the deepest farms in baseball, particularly in pitching. Breslow capitalized by dealing Early, Eyanson and Witherspoon; perhaps these are three arms he's lower on than the market, and he's selling high while he can. Or perhaps Rustchman and Mead will disappoint while the prospects flourish. Time will tell. But one thing is certain - the moves Breslow made this deadline will have a massive impact on his reputation and career going forward.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Boston.

San Diego Padres acquire LHP Robbie Ray (-$2.8M) and cash (~$3.9M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHP Miguel Mendez ($4.6M) and SS Joniel Hernandez ($2.3M)

Ray rebounded about as well as anyone could have hoped from his 2023 Tommy John Surgery, settling in as a decent fourth starter type the last two years. But even with the Giants paying down half of Ray's remaining ~$7.8 million salary, there isn't a ton of surplus here, and this looks like a bit of an overpay by the Padres.

Mendez is a hard-throwing righty who is trending up as he climbs the minors. He may be a reliever long-term, but if so, he should be a good one. Hernandez is a speedy 17-year-old, slightly better than your average lottery ticket prospect.

Accepted by the model as a moderate overpay by San Diego.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire LHP Kris Bubic ($2.6M) from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHP Carlos Duran ($0.1M)

Bubic is out indefinitely with an elbow strain that turned into shoulder soreness. With time running out, his best route back may be in the bullpen, which would likely be just fine for the Dodgers. As an injured rental, he came very cheap; Duran was a minor league free agent signing last offseason.

Accepted by the model as a minor underpay by Los Angeles.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire C/1B Liam Hicks ($17.5M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for 3B Brayden Taylor ($6.2M), SS Adrian Santana ($2.6M) and RHP Jacob Kisting ($0.7M) ($9.5M ttl)

Hicks is a tricky one, a decent prospect who was left unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft due to an uneven profile, seen as not having the glove to be an everyday catcher but not having the power to be an everyday first baseman. That's exactly how his career has played out to this point, as he's almost evenly split his time between catcher, first base and designated hitter this year, and outside of a power surge in April, has been a contact-first bat. Still, the final product is a productive hitter capable of playing a crucial defensive position with four more years of team control and all three options remaining. Clearly the market was cool on Hicks as a long-term catcher, but their loss may be Tampa Bay's gain.

Taylor is the headliner, an infielder who can do a bit of everything but doesn't have a standout tool or plus exit velocity in the minors. He's in Double-A and will likely be a big leaguer by the end of 2027. Santana is a glove-first infielder with some contact and speed, not too dissimilar from the Otto Lopez/Xavier Edwards/Starlyn Caba mold the Marlins have had success with. And Kisting, acquired from the Twins last offseason in exchange for Eric Orze, doesn't have much prospect hype but has been pitching well in his second stint in High-A.

There's reason to doubt Hicks going forward, and reasons to like each piece of the return for Miami. There's room for reasonable disagreement about this trade. Our model in particular just isn't a fan.

Rejected by the model as an underpay by Tampa Bay.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire UT Josh Smith ($0.1M) and RHP Josh Stephan ($0.5M) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for LHP Adam Macko ($2.1M)

Smith is having a down year, but was solid from 2024-25, and is a manager's dream, capable of playing every position on the diamond. He has two options and two years of arbitration remaining. Stephan looks like a depth arm, a back-end/swingman type at best.

Macko was originally acquired from Seattle in the Erik Swanson/Teoscar Hernandez swap. The lefty hasn't quite found his stride yet in the big leagues, but profiles as a capable swingman. He's in his final option year.

Accepted by the model.

Chicago White Sox acquire OF Brenton Doyle (-$0.6M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Mason Adams ($1.7M) and IF Carlos Vielma (not in system)

When Doyle was a league-average hitter in 2024, he looked like a possible cornerstone for Colorado. But after posting a 65 wRC+ in 2025 and a 48 wRC+ during an injury-plagued 2026, he fell out of the team's plans. He has two options remaining, and if he can't hit enough for his plus defense to play in the big leagues, can at least serve as depth for the contending White Sox.

Adams is a depth starter who has stalled a bit at Triple-A and hasn't made his big league debut. Vielma was a lower-profile international signing earlier this year.

Accepted by the model as a minor overpay by Chicago.

Seattle Mariners acquire OF Taylor Ward ($3.3M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHPs Brock Moore ($1.0M), Alex Hoppe ($0.1M) and Harrison Kreiling (not in system)

That Ward was seen as one of the top rental bats on the market was more an indictment of the market itself than huge praise for Ward. That being said, this return does still seem light. Ward is, at the very least, a consistently above average offensive contributor. His power outage this year is worrisome, especially heading to pitcher-friendly Seattle, but he's compensated with a career-high .383 OBP. He'll be a certain boost to a struggling Mariners lineup.

Moore and Hoppe are relievers. The former is fighting through a rough patch in Double-A, while the latter has shuttled between Triple-A and the big leagues, holding his own at both levels. Kreiling is a 24-year-old who's been limited to only 10.2 minor league innings due to injury. These are three fine additions, but one would have expected the Orioles to get more for Ward, especially given their spot on the periphery of the AL Wild Card race.

Accepted by the model as a minor underpay by Seattle.

Cleveland Guardians acquire OF Jo Adell ($0.7M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for C Jacob Cozart ($2.6M)

Like clockwork, the Guardians made a deadline deal for a flawed power bat. Adell, once a top prospect, finally broke through in 2025 with 37 home runs and a 112 wRC+. This year, he's back down to 89, and has been closer to replacement level as a result. He's a much better fit as a role player on a contender than an everyday player on a team like the Angels. He has one more year of arbitration remaining, but it'll likely be in the $7-8 million range; he could be a non-tender candidate this offseason.

Cozart is a plus defensive catcher with an okay bat from the left side. He's a likely back-up, but the Angels have room to give him an opportunity after trading Logan O'Hoppe to Texas. Catcher was a position of depth for Cleveland, so this doesn't hurt too much, despite the small value gap.

Accepted by the model.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire C Ben Rortvedt (-$0.2M) from the New York Mets in exchange for RHP Chayve McDermott ($0.0M)

The Dodgers needed catching depth and reunite with Rortvedt on the cheap. McDermott was DFA'd a few days prior, but after the dust settles, the Mets should have room in the bullpen to give him a chance.

Accepted by the model.

Atlanta Braves acquire LHP Brent Suter (-$0.2M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for IF Nacho Alvarez Jr. ($0.0M)

There's always room on a competitive team for Brent Suter, a serviceable lefty reliever and positive clubhouse presense. Alvarez Jr. was once a top prospect, but hasn't figured it out in the big leagues; he'll get a change of scenery and a chance at playing time with the Angels, similar to Vaughn Grissom earlier this year. Alvarez is in his final option year.

Accepted by the model.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire LHP Brooks Raley ($0.6M) from the New York Mets in exchange for OF John Spikerman ($0.2M) and RHP Luke Gabrysh (not in system)

At 38, Raley remains a quality left-handed reliever, and as a rental he came cheap. Spikerman is a speedy fourth or fifth outfield type, while Gabrysh is a likely reliever, but is currently a starter in High-A.

Accepted by the model.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire 2B Luis Arraez ($5.3M) and RHP Caleb Kilian ($3.8M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHPs Ramon Marquez ($9.9M) and Marty Gair (not in system)

Suddenly billed as an average (or better!) defensive second baseman, Arraez now makes for a slightly messy fit in Philadelphia. He's an upgrade to the lineup for sure, but his addition will reportedly shift Bryson Stott to third base, Alec Bohm to first and Bryce Harper back to the outfield. It could certainly work out, but it's a lot of moving parts for a team that already had defensive questions. Kilian is a nice add for the bullpen, a former top prospect who has reinvented himself as a quality reliever. He has five years of team control remaining, but due to his early-career struggles he's already out of options.

Marquez is a nice add for the Giants and becomes one of the organization's top pitching prospects. The changeup artist has been dominant across Single-A and High-A this year, and should see Double-A before the season ends. There's relief risk, but this type of pitcher doesn't typically get moved for a non-elite rental; Kilian's inclusion definitely bought the Giants an upgraded prospect here. Gair is a big fastball, low command reliever who just reached High-A.

Accepted by the model.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP José Soriano ($41.1M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for SS Arjun Nimmala ($29.6M), RHP Angel Rivero (not in system) and OF Eddie Micheletti (not in system)

The Blue Jays kicked off deadline day with a bang, grabbing one of the best controllable arms on the market just hours after trading away one of the best rentals. The defending American League champions clearly aren't burning it all down; they're leaving themselves a chance in 2026, while prepping for another run in 2027. Soriano has cooled off since his electric start to the season, but his stuff remains some of the most tantalizing in baseball. Leaving the Angels should only help his development. The 27-year-old has two years of arbitration remaining.

Nimmala is a consensus top 50 prospect, a shortstop who can do it all and projects to remain at the position. His profile reminds this writer a bit of Zach Neto, whom the Angels are currently rumored to be shopping. Not even 21 yet, Nimmala is likely another year or two away from the big leagues, but should be a valuable player once he is and instantly becomes the Angels' new top prospect.

Rivero and Micheletti aren't in our system because they haven't been ranked by any of the public prospect sources we reference. Rivero is a traditional lottery ticket, a 19-year-old with a plus slider and good numbers in the Complex League. Micheletti is a left-handed hitting outfielder drafted out of college who has posted an above average batting line at every stop in the minor leagues. He's in Double-A now, but the Angels could give him a chance at the MLB level this year or next.

Perhaps most notable is that such a significant trade was orchestrated by Angels interim GM John Mozeliak. It seems owner Arte Moreno is letting him take full control of this deadline and seeing where the pieces land.

Accepted by the model as a moderate underpay by Toronto.

 

August 2

Chicago White Sox acquire RHP Huascar Brazobán ($1.9M) from the New York Mets in exchange for RHPs Gabe Davis ($1.0M) and Zach Franklin ($0.6M)

Brazobán was a late bloomer, making his big league debut at age 32. As such, he still has three years of arbitration remaining. However, given his age, our model doesn't see those three years as being particularly valuable. Clearly, teams don't either - this is the second time he's been traded for a small return.

Davis looks like a possible back end arm, but he's a couple years away. Franklin is a Triple-A reliever who may find himself in Queens this season. Both add much-needed pitching depth to the Mets system. 

Accepted by the model.

Atlanta Braves acquire RHP Tyler Mahle ($1.1M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHP Anthony Molina ($0.0M)

It's been an up-and-down year for Mahle, but he's been on the upswing as of late, and looks like a fine back-end starter. Molina joins his fourth organization since 2023; he's an interesting enough arm and should get an opportunity down the stretch with the Giants.

Accepted by the model.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Kevin Gausman ($3.3M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for SS Ty Southisene ($4.8M) and OF Brett Bateman ($0.4M)

Gausman's five-year, $110 million free agent deal with the Blue Jays is one of the better starting pitching signings in recent history. Unfortunately for Toronto fans, the 35-year-old won't finish out that deal with the struggling club, and will instead head to Chicago before testing free agency again this winter. He's still a solid pitcher and one of the better rentals available.

Southisene is a speedy utility man with zero power. He seems like a high-probability big leaguer, but will need to make adjustments to be an everyday player. Bateman has a similar profile, but in the outfield, and likely with a lower ceiling. It isn't the most exciting return for Toronto, but for an expensive rental, it's at least a pair of possible big league contributors.

Accepted by the model.

New York Yankees acquire 1B/2B Luis García Jr. ($9.6M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RHPs Jack Cebert ($2.4M), Ben Grable ($1.8M), Yovany Cruz ($0.9M) and Jake Bird ($0.1M)

Despite their surprise season, the Nationals opted to sell high on García Jr. in the midst of his best season by far. As a prospect, he was touted as a contact-hitting second baseman, but at 26 he's found his place as a slugging first baseman. He certainly has his limitations - he can only hit righties, doesn't play great defense and his hyper-aggressive approach means he doesn't walk much - but he's clearly a plus bat and an upgrade for the Yankees, who will have him under control through 2027.

The return is perhaps a bit lighter than expected, but certainly fits Washington's needs. Cruz and Bird are immediate upgrades over about half of the bullpen, despite the former's inexperience and the latter's struggles this season. Cebert is a solid starting pitching prospect missing bats in Double-A, while Grable is a bona fide relief prospect with a big fastball. All four arms could realistically contribute to the next contending Nationals team, perhaps as early as next season.

Accepted by the model as a moderate underpay by New York.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire RHP Freddy Peralta ($5.6M) from the New York Mets in exchange for OF Aidan Smith ($8.4M), RHP Gary Gill Hill ($4.6M) and 2B Emilien Pitre ($0.8M).

It's unclear exactly how involved Tampa Bay became in the Skubal sweepstakes, but regardless, the next morning it turned around and added arbguably the next best rental starter in Peralta. The 30-year-old came into the season as a borderline ace, but his struggles have been a large part of why the Mets are sellers in the first place. And it's not just surface-level - it looks like there's real skills regression here, especially in Peralta's offspeed pitches. If anyone can fix him, though, it's the Rays.

The error bars on New York's return are sizable. Look no further than Smith, paring tantalizing power and speed with concerning swing-and-miss. The 22-year-old has struggled in his second stint in High-A; he's still a promising prospect, but his clock is certainly ticking.

Gill Hill has some fans, as a former high school draftee who found an uptick in velocity in 2024. He's continued to climb the minors and is now pitching respectably in Double-A before his 22nd birthday. He'll likely always be command-over-stuff, but seems reasonably likely to be a big leaguer, and has a chance to develop further. Pitre is a speedy second baseman who's walked nearly twice as often as he's struck out this season. But the 23-year-old doesn't have much pop, so it remains to be seen whether the bat will be knocked out of his hands as he's pitched more aggressively in Triple-A and the big leagues.

Accepted by the model as a major overpay by Tampa Bay.

 

August 1

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire LHP Tarik Skubal ($30.2M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for OF Zyhir Hope ($22.4M) and RHPs Brady Smith ($1.5M) and River Ryan ($0.1M)

To many, this deal felt inevitable. And although this writer would opine that no singular trade or transaction could change the fate of the 2027 baseball season on its own, it's undeniable that this one sent shock waves throughout the sport that will be felt all year long, especially heading into contentious CBA negotiations.

For the Dodgers, this is beyond simple. Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in the sport; objectively, he's firmly in the top five. He's exactly the kind of arm a team aiming for its third consecutive championship would want leading its rotation. With the future of baseball's financial structure uncertain, this could be the Dodgers' last chance to push their chips in before their roster faces new restrictions. And when the cost is the third best outfield prospect in your organization and a pair of tantalizing, though unproven, minor league pitchers? It becomes a no-brainer.

Hope is the obvious headliner. Originally acquired from the Cubs in the 2024 Michael Busch deal, Hope quickly broke out in the Dodgers system, cementing himself as a top 60 prospect in the sport with standout power and speed. He projects as a corner outfielder, and does run some platoon risk (and a bit more swing-and-miss than you'd like) but has all the makings of an impact big leaguer. He's 21 and hitting well in Double-A; there's a non-zero chance he makes it to Detroit by the end of the season, though 2027 is more likely.

One's opinion on River Ryan likely determines their opinion on this entire deal. Some see a late bloomer, a former two-way player whose career has been slowed by injury and his spot on a crowded Dodgers depth chart, but one who flashes top-end stuff and could be a mid-rotation arm or better given the opportunity. Others see a nearly 28-year-old who only has 20.1 MLB innings under his belt and has totaled only 81 professional innings pitched since the start of the 2024 season. Our model leans toward the latter, though it appears the Tigers prefer the former; they'll certainly give him every chance to prove himself in the bigs.

Though our values disagree, Smith is the obvious third piece of this deal by name value. The former third-round pick has good stuff and has missed a ton of bats in the low minors this year.

Much of the discourse surrounding this trade has been (and will continue to be) whether another team could have, or should have, beaten this offer. Jesús Made ($76.8M) of the Brewers was never an option for a two-month rental. Logan Henderson ($60.2M) or Luis Peña ($53.0M) are closer, but would have been incredibly steep prices, as would Theo Gillen ($64.3M) of the Rays. There are deals that each of these two teams could have made without those names, but they would have been costly, and would have represented a divergence from their clearly established processes. And who's to say that the Dodgers wouldn't have countered by upgrading Ryan to Emmett Sheehan ($28.2M), putting those small-market teams right back up against the wall?

The Yankees perhaps deserve the most scrutiny here. They're coming up on two decades since their last championship, an eternity for the Evil Empire. In recent years, they've largely remained on the periphery when it comes to star players, instead watching the Dodgers scoop them up left and right. And between George Lombard ($57.2M), Will Warren ($33.7M), Dax Kilby ($27.9M) and Ryan Weathers ($22.9M), New York had more than enough quality players to headline a deal, and plenty of depth beyond them to round it out.

But these trades aren't made in a vacuum. Perhaps Detroit is particularly high on Hope and Ryan, and maybe even low on some of the names the Yankees have to offer. And perhaps the Yankees have other significant moves in the works between now and the deadline. Time will tell, but in the meantime, expect the cries of baseball's demise to continue to grow.

Accepted by the model as a moderate underpay by Los Angeles.

Chicago White Sox acquire RHP Luis Castillo (-$17.4M) from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Seranthony Dominguez (-$10.8M), OF Nolan Jones (-$0.5M), C Boston Smith (not in system) and conditional cash (unknown)

These two teams pulled off the rare win-win bad contract swap. Castillo is well past his days as a frontline starter, and has been for a couple years. Still, he should be a significant upgrade over Erick Fedde for the suddenly contending White Sox. Castillo is owed roughly $30.2M through 2027. He isn't likely to be worth quite that much, but a change of scenery might not hurt as much as the departure from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park would seem; Castillo also escapes a piggyback/six-man rotation situation in Seattle that likely wasn't too comfortable for the veteran.

Dominguez is the main piece going to the Mariners, a late-inning arm who lives and dies by his command. At 31, he's also past his prime, and his command has failed him so far this year. But he's a cleaner roster fit for Seattle, and he'll only make $14.6M over the next year and a half, providing budget space for further additions. Jones, 28, is bouncing between organizations at this point in his career; he's likely just depth. And Smith finds himself traded for the second time this season, as the 2025 sixth-round pick was dealt from Washington to Chicago in exchange for Curtis Mead back in March. Smith has hit his way up to Double-A, and may have a big-league future, but isn't seen as much of a prospect by our sources.

Accepted by our model as a major overpay by Chicago; this could change as the conditional cash considerations are reported.

Atlanta Braves acquire OF Lane Thomas ($0.7M) and LHP Bailey Falter (-$1.2M) from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHP Lucas Braun ($2.1M) and LHP Carter Holton ($1.6M)

Thomas fits Atlanta's roster like a glove. The 30-year-old has made a career out of hitting left-handed pitching, and he'll continue to do so in a platoon role with Mike Yastrzemski, while also spotting Ronald Acuña Jr. and others across the outfield. He'll be a free agent at the end of the year. Falter has been pitching in Triple-A since May, but should make for a serviceable swingman/depth starter.

The price for the Braves was a pair of real prospects, but nothing too steep. Braun has a back-end, kitchen-sink profile, and he's pitching well in the high minors this year. Holton was Atlanta's second-round pick in 2024, but his career has been slowed due to Tommy John Surgery later that season.

Accepted by the model as a moderate overpay by Atlanta.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire RHP Camilo Doval (-$1.1M) and cash ($1.1M) from the New York Yankees in exchange for C Omar Alfonzo ($1.6M) and OF Luis Cruz (not in system)

The Doval experiment didn't work for the Yankees, as the righty posted an ERA well above 4.00 during his time in the Bronx. The deal opens up a spot in the New York pitching staff for a likely deadline addition.

But for the Pirates, Doval brings a live arm with late-inning experience to a bullpen desparate for exactly that. If he can turn it around, Pittsburgh can even retain Doval through his final year of arbitration in 2027. This likely won't be the last move for a Pirates bullpen in flux.

Accepted by the model.

Milwaukee Brewers acquire C Bo Naylor ($0.0M) and RHP Codi Heuer ($0.0M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for RHP Craig Yoho ($1.0M) and OF Blake Perkins ($0.0M)

Just a year ago, this deal would have turned heads, but both Naylor and Yoho have seen their stocks fall significantly over the last 12 months. Now, it's a change of scenery swap of two young players hoping to refine their skills in a new organization. Naylor has a fine glove, but hasn't hit much at any level since 2023. Yoho is a changeup artist whose primary pitch is controversial across different pitch models, and who has struggled with command and home runs in the big leagues.

Heuer and Perkins are a secondary swap of depth; the latter in particular was redundant with Milwaukee activating Brandon Lockridge from the IL on the same day.

Accepted by the model.

 

July 31

Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Dean Kremer ($1.0M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Jhomnardo Reyes ($15.6M)

After four consecutive years as a reliable back-end starter, Kremer is almost certainly better than his current 6.50 ERA would suggest. But he's also 30, had a lengthy quad injury to start the year and is likely to get a bump to $7-8M in his final year of arbitration in 2027. He's a fine arm, but one without much surplus value.

Reyes is a high-variance prospect, especially as an 18-year-old in Single-A. But our prospect sources see significant upside, more than the typical low minors lottery ticket trade candidate. The model may be a bit high on him, but there's a real chance the Twins end up regretting this trade.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Minnesota.

 

July 30

Minnesota Twins acquire LHP AJ Minter (-$2.7M) from the New York Mets in exchange for IFs Buin Agbayani ($0.5M) and Billy Amick ($0.2M)

This trade may have excited Twins fans hopeful their team would be buying at the deadline, but in reality, it's two middling infield prospects for one middling (and slightly overpaid) reliever. Minter projects to be slightly above replacement level, but even that's a huge improvement over about half of Minnesota's bullpen. Amick and Agbayani may never make it all the way to Queens, but each has one or two tools that could one day play at the big league level.

Accepted by the model as a minor overpay by Minnesota.

Baltimore Orioles acquire C Jake Rogers (-$0.3M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for RHP Zane Barnhart (not in system)

This trade was most notable for the speculation it drew: that it may be a precursor to the Orioles dealing Adley Rutschman. Time will tell. Rogers was DFA'd by Detroit two days prior.

Accepted by the model.

 

July 29

Texas Rangers acquire RHP Chase Silseth ($3.0M) and C Logan O'Hoppe (-$0.9M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for IF Angel Arredondo (not in system)

At first glance, this is the Rangers declaring themselves buyers. But it might not go that far. O'Hoppe was once seen as one of the better young catchers in the league, but he's been well below replacement level the last two years, and Texas optioned him to Triple-A after acquring him. Silseth is a fine reliever with team control, but his peripherals aren't as pretty as his ERA, and he's out of options. On the flipside, the Rangers didn't give up much; interim Angels GM John Mozeliak told the media that they would rank Arredondo within the top 10 prospects in their organization, but no public prospect source comes anywhere close to agreeing with that assessment. Ultimately, this is a trade with much more name value than actual significance.

Accepted by the model.

 

July 26

Chicago White Sox acquire RHP José Urquidy (-$0.2M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Felix Doroteo (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

 

July 25

Boston Red Sox acquire IF Curtis Mead ($11.4M*) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for LHP Connelly Early ($30.4M)

The first major deal of Trade Deadline Week looks a bit lopsided by our estimation. It's worth noting up front that, due to a manual error, we incorrectly had Mead listed at 3.4 years of team control remaining rather than 4.4. At 4.4 years, his value jumps to $19.2M, making the deal closer, but still a clear overpay.

The other clear caveat is Early's health. The lefty was placed on the Injured List in early July due to elbow inflammation. Maybe it's a non-factor; every pitcher has a sore arm from time to time, and it doesn't always lead to further complications, let alone surgery. Or maybe Boston shopped him around and found that teams were scared off by his medicals. We'll never see those medicals, so we'll never have the full picture.

That aside, based off the data we do have, Early's remaining 5.4 years of control appear to be more valuable than Mead's 4.4. One obvious factor is that additional year for Early. Another is that Early entered the 2026 season as a consensus top 50 prospect in baseball. Mead was a top 50 prospect too, but back in 2024. Since his 2023 debut, he bounced between the majors and minors for three different organizations and posted a 77 wRC+ across his first 488 plate appearances in the big leagues.

Mead was DFA'd by the White Sox in March and flipped to Washington in a minor deal. Since, he's torn the cover off the ball. His underlying metrics and batted ball data support his performance, but just given the lack of track record, some skepticism is fair. He also isn't a good defender, likely a first baseman primarily. And he's out of options, a huge factor for a player in his circumstances. He's 25, so there's a chance the Red Sox are getting multiple years of a breakout slugger in his prime, but there's plenty of room for things to go wrong.

As for Early, the lefty looks like an easy back-end starter. Even if that's all he ever is, that has considerable value; fourth and fifth starters routinely sign free agent deals for $10M+, and Early will be making significantly less than that for at least the next few years. Even if you don't see upside for a #3 starter (or better), it's reasonable to view him as a more valuable player than Mead, especially in a pitching-starved market. The Red Sox specifically, though, may not miss him much, given the depth of pitching in their system.

Rejected by the model as an overpay by Boston.

 

July 22

Kansas City Royals acquired RHP Nate Pearson (-$0.4M) from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Max Martin (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

 

July 20

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Seth Halvorsen ($0.2M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for OF Landyn Vidourek ($1.7M) and RHP Nick Frasso ($0.2M)

Halvorsen throws hard, but has no idea where the ball is going. That, along with his two remaining options after this year, make him look like a prime candidate for the Dodgers to develop into a weapon. But this isn't the Rockies of old; they picked up a pair of interesting players in exchange for Halvorsen. Frasso is in his last option year, but he was once a notable prospect, and might just need an opportunity he would never have gotten in Los Angeles. Vidourek is far away, but his power and speed are real.

Accepted by the model.

 

July 18

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Aaron Civale (-$0.8M) from the Athletics in exchange for RHP Aiden Moffett (not in system)

Similar to the Peterson deal, albeit on a smaller scale, the injured Cubs go to the scrap heap desperate for any pitching depth they can find. It's worth mentioning that Civale fared much better outside of the hitter-friendly confines of Sacramento.

Accepted by the model.

 

July 15

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (-$5.8M), LHP Colton Gordon ($1.0M) and cash (~$5.0M) from the Houston Astros in exchange for OF Jadyn Fielder (not in system)

This was ultimately a salary dump, with Milwaukee cutting McCullers on July 26. The deal amounts to the Brewers paying about $2 million and a lottery ticket prospect (albeit one with big league bloodlines) for a depth lefty in Gordon. Houston, up against the luxury tax, opens up a bit of budget space and makes room on the roster for pitchers returning from injury.

Accepted by the model.

 

July 10

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire IF Jacob Gonzalez ($0.7M) and LHP Brandon Eisert ($0.0M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for LHP Jaden Woods ($0.6M) and a Round A Comp Balance Pick ($5.0M)

In the days leading up to the draft, it became clear the Pirates were determined to trade their competitive balance pick, and by our estimate it looks like they lost a lot of leverage in doing so. Eisert and Woods are your run-of-the-mill depth lefty relievers, leaving Gonzalez as the headliner of the deal. The 2023 first-round pick struggled through the minor leagues, only twice putting up even a league-average batting line. But in 2026, something clicked, and Gonzalez torched Triple-A pitching to the tune of a 168 wRC+. This forced him back onto the White Sox radar, and the team gave him his first crack at the big leagues, during which he more or less held his own.

But with a crowded young infield and rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami nearing a return from the injured list, Chicago no longer had room for Gonzalez. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, was desperate for infield depth in the wake of another injury to shortstop Konnor Griffin. The two sides lined up, and though our model values the draft pick higher than Gonzalez, it's more than possible the latter's 2026 adjustments have improved his outlook to the point that he can now have a lengthy big league future ahead of him.

Accepted by the model as a moderate overpay by Pittsburgh.

Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Tommy Nance ($0.0M) and international bonus pool space from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for IF Ryan Sprock ($0.8M)

Accepted by the model.

 

June 30

Texas Rangers acquired RHP Ben Peoples ($2.1M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for C Ben Hartl (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

Boston Red Sox acquire 3B Brett Harris ($0.0M) from the Athletics in exchange for RHP Ben Hansen (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

 

June 27

Athletics acquire RHP Hayden Juenger ($0.7M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for C Owen Carapellotti (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

 

June 24

Chicago Cubs acquire LHP David Peterson ($0.3M) from the New York Mets in exchange for IF Cole Mathis ($4.8M)

Having fallen out of the race early and having moved the struggling lefty back and forth between the bullpen and rotation, the writing was on the wall for the Mets and Peterson. As a rental, New York no longer had a need for him, and managed to net an interesting prospect in Mathis (a former secound-round pick) despite Pererson's down year. Health has been a major issue for the Cubs rotation in 2026, and the Peterson addition of more of one to stop the bleeding than a true trade deadline upgrade.

Accepted by the model as a moderate overpay by Chicago.

 

June 20

Chicago Cubs acquired RHP Jayden Murray ($0.2M) from the Houston Astros in exchange for 1B Cameron Sisneros (not in system)

Accepted by the model.

 

June 18

Atlanta Braves acquire C Joey Bart ($1.0M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Hunter Stratton ($0.0M)

Accepted by the model.

 

June 15

Kansas City Royals acquired RHP Connor Seabold ($0.0M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Denis Samudio (not in system) and cash considerations

Accepted by the model.

 

June 11

Philadelphia Phillies acquire OF Derek Hill ($1.3M) and international bonus pool space from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for OF Dylan Campbell ($1.6M) and IF Jose Colmenares (not in system)

It's subjective, but we're calling this the first move of the 2026 trade season. It was the Phillies' first step in upgrading their biggest weakness, the outfield, by adding a solid defender with decent splits against left-handed pitching. Chicago originally acquired Hill off waivers from the Miami Marlins.

Accepted by the model.